Revenue Estimation Toolkit
Revenue estimation is critical for deciding whether an opportunity is worth pursuing. Never rely on a single method — triangulate from multiple sources.
Overview
Revenue Estimation Toolkit
Revenue estimation is critical for deciding whether an opportunity is worth pursuing. Never rely on a single method — triangulate from multiple sources.
Method 1: Rating-Count Proxy
iOS doesn't show download counts, but rating counts are a useful proxy.
The Formula
Estimated downloads = rating_count × multiplier
| App Type | Multiplier | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Free apps (no prompt) | × 80-120 | Few users bother to rate |
| Free apps (prompted) | × 40-60 | Rating prompts increase rate |
| Paid apps | × 20-40 | Paying users rate more often |
| Subscription apps | × 30-50 | Mix of prompted and organic |
Confidence Levels
| Rating Count | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| >10,000 | High | Large sample, multiplier is reliable |
| 1,000-10,000 | Medium | Reasonable estimate, ±30% margin |
| 100-1,000 | Low | Wide variance, use as directional only |
| <100 | Very Low | Could be new, niche, or genuinely unpopular |
Example Calculation
App with 5,000 ratings (subscription, uses rating prompts):
- Estimated downloads: 5,000 × 40 = 200,000
- At 5% conversion to paid: 10,000 paying users
- At $14.99/yr: ~$150K/yr = ~$12.5K/mo
Important: This is a rough estimate. Always cross-reference with other methods.
Method 2: App Store Chart Position
Chart position correlates with daily downloads:
| Chart Position (US) | Estimated Daily Downloads | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Top 10 Overall | 30,000-100,000+ | Major apps only |
| Top 50 Overall | 10,000-30,000 | Significant traction |
| Top 10 Category | 2,000-10,000 | Category leader |
| Top 50 Category | 500-2,000 | Solid performer |
| Top 100 Category | 200-500 | Moderate traction |
| Top 200 Category | 50-200 | Baseline visibility |
These numbers vary significantly by category. Health & Fitness top 10 is very different from Board Games top 10.
Method 3: Public Revenue Data Sources
Direct Revenue Reports
- IndieHackers.com: Filter by iOS apps, many share exact MRR
- Twitter #buildinpublic: Indie devs post monthly revenue screenshots
- RevenueCat blog: "State of Subscription Apps" annual reports with aggregate data by category
- Sub Club podcast: Founders share revenue numbers openly
- AppFigures/Sensor Tower blogs: Occasional free category reports
Search Patterns
"{app name}" revenue OR MRR OR ARR
"{app name}" "monthly revenue"
site:indiehackers.com "{category}" revenue ios
site:twitter.com "{app name}" revenue
"{category} app" "$" "per month" site:reddit.com
Known Indie iOS Revenue Data Points (Reference)
| App | Category | Revenue | Model | Team Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rootd | Health/Anxiety | $1M+ total | Subscription | 1 person |
| Daylio | Mood tracker | ~$50K/mo | Freemium | Small |
| Finch | Self-care | ~$2M/mo | Subscription | Small |
| Calm | Meditation | $100M+/yr | Subscription | Company |
| Wipr | Ad blocker | Undisclosed | One-time $2 | 1 person |
| 1Blocker | Ad blocker | $3-5M/yr | Subscription | Small |
| Carrot Weather | Weather | ~$20K/mo | Subscription | 1 person |
| Halide | Camera | Undisclosed | One-time | 2 people |
| Streaks | Habit tracker | Undisclosed | One-time $5 | 1 person |
| Dark Noise | Sound machine | ~$3-5K/mo | One-time | 1 person |
Method 4: Competitor Pricing Reverse Engineering
If competitors charge subscription prices, you can estimate their revenue floor:
Minimum viable revenue = team_size × $100K/yr (rough salary cost)
If a 5-person company charges $9.99/mo, they need at minimum:
- $500K/yr revenue to survive
- = ~4,200 active subscribers
- = probably 40,000-80,000 total downloads (at 5-10% conversion)
This gives you a floor estimate of market size.
Method 5: Revenue Modeling Template
For your own opportunity, build a simple model:
Monthly Revenue = Downloads/mo × Trial Start Rate × Trial→Paid Rate × Price/mo
Example:
- ASO + marketing drives 3,000 downloads/mo
- 40% start free trial = 1,200 trials
- 20% convert to paid = 240 new subscribers/mo
- At $14.99/yr ($1.25/mo effective) = $300/mo new MRR
- With 5% monthly churn, steady state ≈ 4,800 subscribers
- Steady state revenue ≈ $6,000/mo
Lifetime model alternative:
- 3,000 downloads/mo
- 15% buy lifetime at $39.99 = 450 purchases = $18,000/mo
Adjust assumptions based on category benchmarks in benchmarks.md.
Revenue Red Flags
- No competitor in the category charges more than $2.99 (low WTP ceiling)
- Top apps are free with no in-app purchases (users expect free)
- Category is dominated by ad-supported apps (race to the bottom)
- All subscription competitors have "too expensive" as the #1 complaint
- Category has a strong free open-source alternative
Revenue Green Flags
- Multiple competitors successfully charge $9.99+/mo (proven WTP)
- Users in Reddit threads say "I'd gladly pay for..."
- Competitor with poor quality still makes money (market will support better product)
- Category has high switching costs (data lock-in, learning curve)
- Problem is painful enough that money is not the primary objection