second order

<objective> Apply second-order thinking to $ARGUMENTS (or the current discussion if no arguments provided).

Ask: "And then what?" First-order thinking stops at immediate effects. Second-order thinking follows the chain. </objective>

<process> 1. State the action or decision 2. Identify first-order effects (immediate, obvious consequences) 3. For each first-order effect, ask "And then what happens?" 4. Continue to third-order if significant 5. Identify delayed consequences that change the calculus 6. Assess whether the action is still worth it after full chain analysis </process>

<output_format> Action: [what's being considered]

First-Order Effects: (Immediate)

• [Effect 1]
• [Effect 2]

Second-Order Effects: (And then what?)

• [Effect 1] → leads to → [Consequence]
• [Effect 2] → leads to → [Consequence]

Third-Order Effects: (And then?)

• [Key downstream consequences]

Delayed Consequences: [Effects that aren't obvious initially but matter long-term]

Revised Assessment: After tracing the chain, this action [is/isn't] worth it because... </output_format>

<success_criteria>

• Traces causal chains beyond obvious effects
• Identifies feedback loops and unintended consequences
• Reveals delayed costs or benefits
• Distinguishes actions that compound well from those that don't
• Prevents "seemed like a good idea at the time" regret </success_criteria>